Caphold.net – Page 3

Despite recent comments from Anthony Davis where he claims to value legacy over money, many NBA fans still believe (and New Orleans wishes) that the super-max contract is simply too much money for Davis to walk away from. However, I want to show you how he can get his legacy AND his money, all within the confines of the current NBA CBA.

To begin let’s clarify the extensions that Davis is eligible for…

If Davis resigns with the Pelicans they can offer him the max, 5 years $239 million.
If Davis is traded and then re-signs with that team, he can get 5 years $205 million.
If Davis just straight up leaves the Pels, the most he can get is 4 years $152 million.

An interesting note is that Davis has a trade kicker in his contract, meaning that if the Pelicans were to trade him, he would receive a 15% bonus ($4.1 million) in addition to his salary. He can discretionarily waive that kicker, meaning he has some leverage regarding what team’s trade for him as the Pelicans would like to avoid that penalty.

Now for this next part, we need to understand how maximum contracts work. The “max” is a fixed percentage of a team’s salary, and that percentage is variable to factors like years played, if they made an ALL NBA team, if they are signing with their own team or as a free agent, etc. All we really need to understand is that the “max” a player can receive is a variable number that fluctuates year to year and can be influenced by that player's achievement. For simplicity, there are really three max contracts. Players with 0-6 years’ experience are eligible for 25% of the cap, 7-9 years are eligible for 30%, and 10+ years are eligible for 35% of the cap. Additionally, players who sign under “Bird rights” are eligible for 8% annual raises, 5% otherwise. Bird rights are designed to favor the team that drafted you, but under specific circumstances can be transferred to another team.

So, with all that in mind let me lay out what I would if Anthony Davis were my client.

It’s clear to me that New Orleans will not trade Davis this year, they have little incentive to do so. Thus, with little leverage this year, it’s best to let Demps and co. know that they are on notice, and that if this trade deadline doesn’t bring you serious help you will request a trade in the off-season. I don’t care to speculate here as to who will trade for Davis, but my favorites are the Lakers, Celtics, and Warriors.

Now assuming you have been traded, rather than sign for the max AD can sign a 2+1 (player option). As he has been in the league for 7 years, this contract would get him to the ten-year mark where he can sign the most-max max contract. We have recently seen stars like LeBron James and Kevin Durant take such contracts to hit the decade mark.

See the breakdown below (Assume static cap of 101.869 million for comparison purposes).

Non-Pelican team
(2) + (max) + (max) [Next 12 years]
63,566,256 + 209,168,669 + 209,168,669 = $481,903,594

Pelicans
(max) + (max) [Next 10 years]
239000000 + 239000000 = $478,000,000

As you can see, over the next decade AD would make very similar money to what the Pelicans can offer him were he to join another team. These figures, however, do NOT take into consideration potential endorsements, investment deal flow, etc that a different market can offer. If my client can make the same or more money, play on a better team, and live in a nicer city... I think I have to advise him to take that deal! However, I believe AD does have loyalty to the city of New Orleans and would love to stay there if he thought they could win, but it's important to understand his decision will not be about money, it will be about basketball and lifestyle.

Squad we comin' at you with 3 in-depth trade ideas going into the All-Star break as teams look to reduce salary and add missing pieces with eyes on the playoffs. Feel free to comment and send us your own trade ideas!

1. Otto Porter for Julius Randle, Solomon Hill, and a protected 2019 1st round pick.

Wizards Perspective:
The Wizards just traded for Trevor Ariza, at the time signaling that they were doubling down on the Wall/Beal backcourt. However, not only is John Wall starting his super-max contract next season but he just had season-ending surgery on his heel! This has led to the Wizards being "open to discussing any and all members of their core," with Otto Porter appearing as the "most likely" member of the team to be traded by February's deadline, according to The Athletic's Sam Amick.

Side Note: The Wizards FO will be looking to shed salary without getting worse, as I'm sure they are hoping a healed Wall can lead them to a strong post-season next year. Most fans will say the core didn't work, blow it up! But the FO in place want to keep their jobs and have a vested interest in the team remaining competitive (profitable) for the foreseeable future. This most likely means avoiding a true rebuild.

Now if the Wizards will need to get creative if they want to remain competitive, re-sign Ariza (cause, if they don't that trade will look really bad) AND shed salary going into the upcoming off-season. The Wizards biggest issue the past couple seasons has been their post presence. Gortat, Mahinmi, Howard - none have been the effective post presence the Wizards need. However, adding Randle not only shores up the interior but give you an additional playmaker who can find the Wizards shooters. Solomon Hill is a good defender and reliable role player, the Wizards can look to keep him after but really he is expiring money that they can put toward the Ariza contract.

Pelicans Perspective:
The Pelicans, for at least the last three years, have needed shooters on the wing. Players who can spread the floor for AD to work that magic, but for some reason, this has not appeared to be a priority for Demps and his staff. Julius Randle has been outplaying his contract and barring an injury will not be exercising his player option next year. The Pelicans are not going to want to hand him big money with the fate of AD in the air so it makes perfect sense for them to capitalize on his value now.

But wait! Porter has a large contract!? What's the difference? The answer is positional scarcity, let's say 1 year from now AD demands a trade - well the universe in which the Pelicans have an above average 3pt shooting, average defending wing gets them more value than the universe in which they have a playmaking post-player. Additionally adding a wing player of merit could help them in their bid to keep AD, as they show they are serious about building around him. A post-season lineup of Holiday-Moore-Porter-Mirotic-Davis looks great on paper and could definitely make some noise.

2. Dennis Schröder, Alex Abrines, and a second round pick for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke.

Thunder Perspective:
In my opinion, the Thunder are a move or two away from being a true contender. Signing Russell Westbrook and Paul George this past off-season to long terms deals created a window and allows them to make win now moves. The Thunder have been great on defense but desperately need shooting. Russell Westbrook has incredible gravity when he attacks the rim but outside of Paul George has no one to punish the opposing team. The Thunder have tried running Schröder off-ball but its clear he doesn't demand enough respect when shooting at a 32% clip. Haraway Jr. has been shooting 36% from three on nearly double the attempts that Schröder has (4.2 vs. 8.1 3PA), with half seemingly in the face of a strongly contesting defender. It's not hard to imagine that the quality of the looks he gets will improve, further increasing his 3% and long-term value. While a weak defender, have defensive studs like George and Adams around him can minimize his impact on that end of the floor. Also, with the addition of Burke (36% from 3) at the PG position, the Thunder have the depth they would need going into the post-season. Abrines is thrown in to minimize the tax bill the Thunder will see this season and the second round pick is more valuable as a trade piece than a future player at this point for the Thunder.

Knicks Perspective:
All the Knicks really want is cap space, but the Tim Hardaway Jr. contract is a tough pill to swallow for many teams who would give him a look. The Knicks have had a revolving door at the PG position, so swapping Hardaway Jr for Schroder, a quality player at a position of need, for less money on the same number of years could provide them stability going forward. Also moving Hardaway Jrs shots to their younger core will help them spur development. We wouldn't expect the pick from the Thunder to be of much value but can help in future trades as the Knicks will want to retain their own picks.

Side note: Other factors to consider for the Knicks is that Frank Ntilikina has not lived up to expectations, but has garnered interest around the league. The Knicks have even shown interest in dealing him, further diluting their PG depth. Additionally, the weak upcoming draft class (in terms of point guards) and the stellar play of Emmanual Mudiay give the Knicks additional pressure to put a solid guard with years next to their young core.

3. Brandon Knight, Marquese Chriss and Houstons first (2019, protected) and a second-round pick (2020) for Iman Shumpert, Nemanja Bjelica, and Justin Jackson.

Image result for iman shumpert justin jackson

Rockets perspective:
They need to get Brandon Knight off the books, the burden of his contract has been incredibly apparent as the Rockets continue to sign a bevy of 10-day contracts for roster depth. They need a low risk, low(ish)-cost maneuver that gives them depth and salary relief. The Chris Paul contract is also an albatross but also signals to us that Houston views now as their championship window, meaning those picks are of little value to the current team. Morey and his staff will look to surround Paul and Harden with as many defensively-switchable shooters as they can. It's my opinion that the Kings can offer them one of the best mixes of cap relief, shooting, and depth.

Iman Shumpert is a known commodity with playoff experience, an expiring contract, and is having a resurgence from behind the 3 point line, shooting 37% on 4.8 attempts this year. He has shown himself to be a valuable perimeter defender that can guard the 1-3 well enough. Houston can look to re-sign him for less or put his 11 million to use in free agency. Nemanja Bjelica has been shooting a scorching 41% from 3 on 3.5 attempts per game. Bjelica has also shown a penchant for playmaking but can make some mistakes with the ball. While an effort defender, he can make face-palm inducing decisions at times. Best to think of him as a knockoff Ryan Anderson in this context, who despite his bloated contract, did provide a lot of value for the Rockets in the regular season. I would also love to see sequences where Harden drives, kicks to Bjelica in the corner, Bjelica gets forced to cut to the basket, flashes a floater and kicks out to another shooter. The Rockets don't really have any playmaking forwards and it would be great to see what that looks like next to Harden.

Justin Jackson's value was the hardest part of this trade for me, as at only 20 minutes a night he is not getting enough run to prove who he is. Shumpert and Bjelica will not net much in a trade, as Sacramento could do better if they wanted a pure salary dump. The Rockets would love to have a young, switchable wing who can shoot the 3. While Jackson is all of these things he is still raw, needing to build up his body and get reps. Sac has too much youth and not enough minutes, so it may be in their interest to start finalizing their core and moving forward. I can see this trade without him but I think there is a deal to be made that includes him, all comes down to how both teams value him.

Sacramento's perspective:
Sacramento has over-performed expectations this year on the incredible sophomore campaign of De'Aaron Fox, seemingly moving their timeline up. With the least money on the books in the entire league, the Kings should look for ways to compound the value of their cap space. By taking in Knight and getting a first and second, at the expense of role players and a young guy in Jackson, they can look to trade Knight next year for even more value as teams around the league will be looking for expiring money.

While everyone heralds the Kings for their play I actually believe they are in a dangerous situation. They are just good enough to potentially crack into the playoffs, meaning any picks they could be outside the lottery. Yet, they are not good enough to crack the top 4 of the West - and probably won't be if they let this core grow together. If they are not careful they could end up an average team in perpetuity, a team that does well in the regular season even wins a round in the playoffs but is never considered a real threat. It's my opinion that the Kings should use their cap space these next couple years to aggregate assets, determine which of their youth they want to extend, and position themselves to able to make aggressive trades in the 20-21 and 21-22 season. Sacramento has never been a strong free-agent destination but they can put themselves in a position where they can trade for the next disgruntled star (think Leonard, George) or complementary role players.

Legacy > Money

3 NBA Trades Ideas