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Brook Lopez = peak scarcity

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Milwaukee got buck’d up by the Celtics in Game 1, but were able to reset the tone of the series with a dominant Game 2. It’s clear that Giannis’s supporting cast needs to play at a higher level, and Brogdon’s return should help as well. The outcome of the playoffs and each players performance will be a huge factor in determining what the Bucks will do in free agency and for no one is that truer then Brook Lopez.

But look at this *bleeping* chart…

The best shooters 30-40 ft from the rim are basically represented by three archetypal subgroups:

Guards:
Trae Young, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Eric Gordon

Wings with guard skills:
LeBron James, Luka Dončić, Kevin Durant

Brook Lopez’s:
Brook Lopez

What I think most fans miss from the chart is exactly how few peers Brook Lopez has. Typically, NBA players are a complex mix of skills-sets that reside within their subgroup. Young and Curry, James and Dončić are similar from a skillset perspective, just with different efficacy levels – but Brook Lopez and his skillset appear to be irreplicable!

His ability to launch from range pulls the opposing 5 out to the perimeter, opening the floor so Giannis Antetokounmpo can attack the rim. He’s also lethal as a trailing big from a stalled attack in transition, and his defense ain’t that bad! I get that you don’t want him guarding Kyrie Irving at the top of the key, but within the paint, he does a good job of using his length to bother drivers. From a brief dive into the data, the players with the closest mix of height and 3P% are Kevin Love, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Marc Gasol. All of whom didn’t shoot anywhere close to the same volume as Lopez and are currently unacquirable or paid more than Milwaukee would want to take on at the position. 

Which begs the question – how do you price a player with an incredibly scarce skillset that is vital to your scheme? How much do you, as a small market team, overpay against their market rate to retain Brook Lopez? I pulled up some player contracts that I think will provide a simple, contextual framework for Brook Lopez’s future contract. When looking for appropriate contracts I really wanted to focus on players whose fit went beyond pure talent but provided unique skillsets for their team that made pricing non-obvious. 

Jusuf Nurkic (approx. $12 mil a year):
Acquired via trade, I believe Nurkic’s contract sets the spot price for non-star/non-big 3 (think Capela)/starter-level player at the 5 spot. While Nurkic has a more traditional center skillset, he was particularly impactful when he transitioned to Portland. This impact level surveyed against a saturated talent pool of big men has led to price suppression for centers. 

Marcus Smart (approx. $13 mil a year):
Brings a physical and mental toughness to a roster full of players who have relied on out-talenting their competitors their whole careers. His impact on this particular roster is outsized when you consider him on many other rosters throughout the league. I believe he shares this in common with Brook Lopez. Of course, he would be great on other teams, but damn, this is probably where he will have the highest impact. 

Joe Ingles (approx. $13 mil a year): 
Swiss army knife for the Jazz – ball handles, playmakes, cuts to the rim, spots up. Good team defender, his slightly above-averageness across skillsets opens up the rest of the Jazz’s roster to focus on their specializations. Essentially, he, like Brook Lopez, makes the star’s job easier by offsetting particular responsibilities. For example, Giannis can go crazy driving to the rim knowing he can just throw the ball back out to a 7ft, 3p shooting trébuchet. 

All in all, I think these contracts provide a realistic starting point for a negotiation framework between the Bucks and Brook Lopez. Yet, what is the premium for his scarcity? I’m sure we could build a mathematical model to demonstrate his value but ain’t nobody got time for that. The quick rundown is that he’s 31 but his game is likely going to diminish at a slower rate as his game is not predicated on athleticism. Personally, I would aim to get him on a 3-year, $36 million dollar deal. He is the best stretch 5 in the league and you need to keep him to maximize Giannis. 

 

I wish the Wolves could pay Draymond

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Let me open by saying I understand the Wolves are in a “just turrible” cap situation and would need to make a number of aggressive, depreciative moves to be able to clear the books to take on Draymond Green. A players value is nearly always contextual to the team they are on and I want to make a brief, and hopefully compelling case, as to why I think a near-max payday Draymond would perfectly complement KAT.


First off, DEFENSE! While KAT has improved this year, it’s becoming clear that KAT will most likely never be a high-value defender. He gets lost in the pick n’ roll and is constantly getting beat off backside lobs. Having a defender, and more importantly, a communicator of Draymond Greens level should do wonders to help KAT with his positioning. I felt it was an immense loss when the Twolves decided not to bring Kevin Garnett back for KAT’s second year. You could see the difference w/KG yelling at the young fellas on the floor. Getting a 4 who can defend on the perimeter and interior, block shots, make smart help defense decisions, and switch out are the perfect compliment to KAT’s deficiencies.

On offense, Draymond’s ball handling, transition skill, passing and ability to initiate the offense should open up opportunities for KAT both on the block and the perimeter. I understand that Draymond doesn’t shoot threes but no one else on the Timberwolves does either so I don’t see this as a massive issue. If anything, it would allow management to focus on getting more shooting out of the guard positions.

A King in the East

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The main reason I am excited about this piece is I consider the Nets to be one of the top 5 front offices in the league. At first blush, you may think I am crazy, as the Nets recent history does not point toward operational success. However, ever since Sean Marks took over and got owner buy-in, the Nets have been the epitome of excellent management. With no picks of their own, they have done an excellent job of taking on money and acquiring young, high-upside talent via trade and the draft. Let's take a deep dive into what they have done to earn this praise.

Image result for sean marks

With Game of Thrones returning most people are focused on what's North of the wall, but let me peel your gaze to what's east of the river! When Sean Marks took over in 2016, he and his team were tasked with the heavy task of rebuilding what remained from Billie King and his front office. Their primary offense being a trade that sent Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks, Kris Joseph, and Keith Bogans  to the Celtics for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, DJ White, three first-round picks (2014, 2016, 2018) AND the rights to swap first rounders in 2015 and 2017. 

Side Note: What's fascinating about this trade is that the impact to the Nets organization might have been minimal had the team stayed a playoff contender. However, within two years none of the players they traded for remained on their roster and the Nets were one of the worst teams in basketball. Had they been giving Boston late first round picks, rather than consecutive top 3 picks, the league might not be in its current position of debating whether to ban pick swaps in-between years where first round picks have been traded.

However, Marks was not deterred by the precarious position he was handed and let his goal be known. They would deal their valuable veterans and take on expiring contracts in exchange for mostly first round picks. He first traded Thad Young to the Pacers for the rights to Caris LeVert. Then trading Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough for Andrew Nicholson, Marcus Thornton and a first-round pick - which eventually became Jarret Allen.  

Then perhaps the biggest trade he made so far, sending Brook Lopez and the rights to the 27th pick (Kyle Kuzma) to the Lakers for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov. While now we look at this trade and some may prefer Kuzma, at the time he was a relative unknown - and if it means anything to you, I would MUCH rather have Russell. I like players that can shoot 3’s efficiently! Also that same year he traded Justin Hamilton for DeMarre Carroll and Toronto’s first and second-round draft picks in 2018, becoming Dzanan Musa and Rodions Kurucs respectively. Kurucs has already shown flashes so prepare to learn how to enunciate this guys name!

What I like the most about these moves is their value when applied via an asymmetric risk lens.

Asymmetric risk is when there is a notable imbalance between the risk and reward of a decision. In this context, it means the Nets were willing to look past whatever downside a decision had if they felt there was an out-sized opportunity to the upside. Basically, the ceiling was so attractive the floor didn’t matter. Sometimes, bad teams feel so compelled to get someone that can help right now that they lose sight of the bigger picture and are never able to really pull themselves out of non-contention hell. However, Marks and the Nets have kept their eyes on the prize, taking on salary for Russell - a player with baggage ousted from LA due to issues with his teammates. Drafting Levert, a lottery-level talent who fell due to having three surgeries on his left foot in 22 months, with the last injury ending his college career early. Then drafting two European players and well... expecting them to play! One day I will write about how much I hate the draft-and-stash mentality around European talent, but this is not that day. This type of risk exposure has paid dividends for the Nets and as they continue to grow I hope they maintain their risk-on perspective.

Side Note: What should be considered is what we would be saying about Marks and co. if one of the crazy RFA contract battles they were in had gone their way. Consider, Marks offered Allen Crabbe a four-year 75 million dollar contract and offered Tyler Johnson a four-year, $50 million dollar contract. Both times the home team elected to keep their player, but the conversation around the Nets would be MUCH different had these contracts been on the books. So their not perfect, but they have been able to capitalize off their luck.  

In their current state, the Nets have excellent young talent in LeVert, Russell, and Allen - great role players in Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris, and now the cap space to bring in two max level players this offseason. While that cap space has been captivating the media I am not sold on the value of taking two players right now. It’s simply too early. I will concede though that they should do all they can to get Kevin Durant. In my estimation, Brooklyn should be his number 1 choice IF he doesn't stay in Golden State. If he wants out, why go to the number two team in LA, just to be the second biggest player in the market behind LeBron? Go be the biggest player on the East coast, talk and learn about China and tech from Joe Tsai, invest in New York and Brooklyn's startup scene, and be in a basketball situation where they will, but more importantly, have the capacity to build around you. 

KD to Brooklyn is bullish, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets make the playoffs this year. 

Peace.