Milwaukee got buck’d up by the Celtics in Game 1, but were able to reset the tone of the series with a dominant Game 2. It’s clear that Giannis’s supporting cast needs to play at a higher level, and Brogdon’s return should help as well. The outcome of the playoffs and each players performance will be a huge factor in determining what the Bucks will do in free agency and for no one is that truer then Brook Lopez.
But look at this *bleeping* chart…
The best shooters 30-40 ft from the rim are basically represented by three archetypal subgroups:
Guards:
Trae Young, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Eric Gordon
Wings with guard skills:
LeBron James, Luka Dončić, Kevin Durant
Brook Lopez’s:
Brook Lopez
What I think most fans miss from the chart is exactly how few peers Brook Lopez has. Typically, NBA players are a complex mix of skills-sets that reside within their subgroup. Young and Curry, James and Dončić are similar from a skillset perspective, just with different efficacy levels – but Brook Lopez and his skillset appear to be irreplicable!
His ability to launch from range pulls the opposing 5 out to the perimeter, opening the floor so Giannis Antetokounmpo can attack the rim. He’s also lethal as a trailing big from a stalled attack in transition, and his defense ain’t that bad! I get that you don’t want him guarding Kyrie Irving at the top of the key, but within the paint, he does a good job of using his length to bother drivers. From a brief dive into the data, the players with the closest mix of height and 3P% are Kevin Love, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Marc Gasol. All of whom didn’t shoot anywhere close to the same volume as Lopez and are currently unacquirable or paid more than Milwaukee would want to take on at the position.
Which begs the question – how do you price a player with an incredibly scarce skillset that is vital to your scheme? How much do you, as a small market team, overpay against their market rate to retain Brook Lopez? I pulled up some player contracts that I think will provide a simple, contextual framework for Brook Lopez’s future contract. When looking for appropriate contracts I really wanted to focus on players whose fit went beyond pure talent but provided unique skillsets for their team that made pricing non-obvious.
Jusuf Nurkic (approx. $12 mil a year):
Acquired via trade, I believe Nurkic’s contract sets the spot price for non-star/non-big 3 (think Capela)/starter-level player at the 5 spot. While Nurkic has a more traditional center skillset, he was particularly impactful when he transitioned to Portland. This impact level surveyed against a saturated talent pool of big men has led to price suppression for centers.
Marcus Smart (approx. $13 mil a year):
Brings a physical and mental toughness to a roster full of players who have relied on out-talenting their competitors their whole careers. His impact on this particular roster is outsized when you consider him on many other rosters throughout the league. I believe he shares this in common with Brook Lopez. Of course, he would be great on other teams, but damn, this is probably where he will have the highest impact.
Joe Ingles (approx. $13 mil a year):
Swiss army knife for the Jazz – ball handles, playmakes, cuts to the rim, spots up. Good team defender, his slightly above-averageness across skillsets opens up the rest of the Jazz’s roster to focus on their specializations. Essentially, he, like Brook Lopez, makes the star’s job easier by offsetting particular responsibilities. For example, Giannis can go crazy driving to the rim knowing he can just throw the ball back out to a 7ft, 3p shooting trébuchet.
All in all, I think these contracts provide a realistic starting point for a negotiation framework between the Bucks and Brook Lopez. Yet, what is the premium for his scarcity? I’m sure we could build a mathematical model to demonstrate his value but ain’t nobody got time for that. The quick rundown is that he’s 31 but his game is likely going to diminish at a slower rate as his game is not predicated on athleticism. Personally, I would aim to get him on a 3-year, $36 million dollar deal. He is the best stretch 5 in the league and you need to keep him to maximize Giannis.