A King in the East

The main reason I am excited about this piece is I consider the Nets to be one of the top 5 front offices in the league. At first blush, you may think I am crazy, as the Nets recent history does not point toward operational success. However, ever since Sean Marks took over and got owner buy-in, the Nets have been the epitome of excellent management. With no picks of their own, they have done an excellent job of taking on money and acquiring young, high-upside talent via trade and the draft. Let's take a deep dive into what they have done to earn this praise.

With Game of Thrones returning most people are focused on what's North of the wall, but let me peel your gaze to what's east of the river! When Sean Marks took over in 2016, he and his team were tasked with the heavy task of rebuilding what remained from Billie King and his front office. Their primary offense being a trade that sent Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks, Kris Joseph, and Keith Bogans  to the Celtics for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, DJ White, three first-round picks (2014, 2016, 2018) AND the rights to swap first rounders in 2015 and 2017. 

Side Note: What's fascinating about this trade is that the impact to the Nets organization might have been minimal had the team stayed a playoff contender. However, within two years none of the players they traded for remained on their roster and the Nets were one of the worst teams in basketball. Had they been giving Boston late first round picks, rather than consecutive top 3 picks, the league might not be in its current position of debating whether to ban pick swaps in-between years where first round picks have been traded.

However, Marks was not deterred by the precarious position he was handed and let his goal be known. They would deal their valuable veterans and take on expiring contracts in exchange for mostly first round picks. He first traded Thad Young to the Pacers for the rights to Caris LeVert. Then trading Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough for Andrew Nicholson, Marcus Thornton and a first-round pick - which eventually became Jarret Allen.  

Then perhaps the biggest trade he made so far, sending Brook Lopez and the rights to the 27th pick (Kyle Kuzma) to the Lakers for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov. While now we look at this trade and some may prefer Kuzma, at the time he was a relative unknown - and if it means anything to you, I would MUCH rather have Russell. I like players that can shoot 3’s efficiently! Also that same year he traded Justin Hamilton for DeMarre Carroll and Toronto’s first and second-round draft picks in 2018, becoming Dzanan Musa and Rodions Kurucs respectively. Kurucs has already shown flashes so prepare to learn how to enunciate this guys name!

What I like the most about these moves is their value when applied via an asymmetric risk lens.

Asymmetric risk is when there is a notable imbalance between the risk and reward of a decision. In this context, it means the Nets were willing to look past whatever downside a decision had if they felt there was an out-sized opportunity to the upside. Basically, the ceiling was so attractive the floor didn’t matter. Sometimes, bad teams feel so compelled to get someone that can help right now that they lose sight of the bigger picture and are never able to really pull themselves out of non-contention hell. However, Marks and the Nets have kept their eyes on the prize, taking on salary for Russell - a player with baggage ousted from LA due to issues with his teammates. Drafting Levert, a lottery-level talent who fell due to having three surgeries on his left foot in 22 months, with the last injury ending his college career early. Then drafting two European players and well... expecting them to play! One day I will write about how much I hate the draft-and-stash mentality around European talent, but this is not that day. This type of risk exposure has paid dividends for the Nets and as they continue to grow I hope they maintain their risk-on perspective.

Side Note: What should be considered is what we would be saying about Marks and co. if one of the crazy RFA contract battles they were in had gone their way. Consider, Marks offered Allen Crabbe a four-year 75 million dollar contract and offered Tyler Johnson a four-year, $50 million dollar contract. Both times the home team elected to keep their player, but the conversation around the Nets would be MUCH different had these contracts been on the books. So their not perfect, but they have been able to capitalize off their luck.  

In their current state, the Nets have excellent young talent in LeVert, Russell, and Allen - great role players in Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris, and now the cap space to bring in two max level players this offseason. While that cap space has been captivating the media I am not sold on the value of taking two players right now. It’s simply too early. I will concede though that they should do all they can to get Kevin Durant. In my estimation, Brooklyn should be his number 1 choice IF he doesn't stay in Golden State. If he wants out, why go to the number two team in LA, just to be the second biggest player in the market behind LeBron? Go be the biggest player on the East coast, talk and learn about China and tech from Joe Tsai, invest in New York and Brooklyn's startup scene, and be in a basketball situation where they will, but more importantly, have the capacity to build around you. 

KD to Brooklyn is bullish, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets make the playoffs this year. 

Peace.